Sunday night’s win over the Ravens wasn’t the first time Josh Allen put on his Superman cape and willed the Bills to a victory. Allen’s latest heroic performance made the quarterback the sole MVP favorite, ending Lamar Jackson’s preseason reign.
Buffalo also became the outright Super Bowl favorite (+550) on ESPN BET shedding the co-favorite designation with Baltimore. The Bills’ improbable win over the Ravens featured 394 passing yards and 30 rushing yards from Allen, who led an unlikely comeback to win an AFC divisional-round rematch against the team they eliminated last January.
The Ravens were ahead 40-25 with roughly five minutes remaining and had a 99% chance of winning, according to ESPN’s analytics. However, Baltimore’s conservative play-calling, suspect passing defense, and a costly Derrick Henry fumble allowed the Bills to win 41-40 on a walk-off field goal in an early candidate for game of the year.
In the fourth quarter, when the Ravens still looked like they were en route to a win, Allen was +600 to win MVP while Jackson was +300. Twenty minutes later, once the clock ran down to zero, Allen had flipped to +375, and Jackson was +500.
If Week 1 is any indication, MVP could be another two-horse race between Allen and Jackson. As for the Super Bowl picture, the Ravens still have the second-best odds.
Super Bowl odds
Team
Odds
Bills
+550
Ravens
+650
Eagles
+700
Packers
+800
Chiefs
+1000
Lions
+1400
49ers
+1600
Chargers
+1800
Commanders
+1800
Bengals
+2000
Rams
+2000
After Baltimore blew another fourth-quarter lead in a big game and its defense allowed 41 points, bettors are convinced the Bills are the team to beat in the AFC. Buffalo’s received the most Super Bowl bets (25%) and AFC title bets (65%) since Sunday night’s game.
The Packers received the second-most action since yesterday and were also one of the biggest Super Bowl odds movers after a resounding win over a division rival. Green Bay’s impressive pass rush pummeled the Lions, stymying Jared Goff and Detroit’s offense. The Packers jumped to the fourth-best odds to win the Super Bowl (+800), leapfrogging the Chiefs and Lions. They also became NFC North favorites, moving from +250 to -120. Detroit, which could have serious concerns after the departure of its offensive and defensive coordinators, saw its odds to win the division lengthen from +145 to +425.
The Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds also got worse after losing to the Chargers in Brazil on Friday night. Kansas City moved from +750 to +1000, while Los Angeles improved from +2500 to +1800. The Chiefs remain the favorites in the AFC West, a division they’ve won nine straight seasons, but the gap has shrunk substantially. Kansas City opened the season as a -120 favorite while Los Angeles was +300. Now, the Chiefs are +160 and the Chargers are +200.
Week 1 is the best time to overreact, especially as oddsmakers try to discern what’s real and what’s not from the opening weekend. A lot will change between September and February, but the Bills and Packers were clear winners of the weekend.
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