Wow, do things ever change quickly in the playoffs.
The league-best Thunder were cruising to a Game 1 win over the Nuggets, leading by 11 points with a little more than four minutes remaining. A victory would’ve moved Oklahoma City to 5-0 in the postseason. But rather than celebrating what would have been their 73rd win of the campaign, the Thunder are reeling from a stunning collapse and preparing for what’s suddenly become a must-win Game 2.
The biggest story of Denver’s 121-119 victory was Nikola Jokic, who feasted on a Thunder team (and specifically Chet Holmgren) unequipped to guard him. But after helplessly watching Jokic pile up 42 points and 22 rebounds, the Thunder had a chance to ice the game while Jokic watched helplessly from the bench. Instead, a mathematically sound strategy led to OKC’s demise.
It’s generally accepted that the best course of action is to foul when leading by three with the shot clock turned off, as it’s less likely the opposing team will win a free-throw shooting contest by three-plus points than it is they’ll make a 3-pointer. If the team in front simply makes its free throws and avoids turnovers, the game is over. The Thunder subscribe to this school of thought, so it was no surprise to see Alex Caruso intentionally foul Jokic with OKC up 117-114 and 13 seconds remaining.
Jokic made both free throws, but the Nuggets kept him on the bench following a subsequent Thunder timeout, as the three-time MVP had five fouls and Denver was going to be looking to intentionally foul. However, a well-executed play out of the timeout – and a defensive breakdown by the Nuggets – allowed Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score a basket before Denver could foul. That dunk left OKC up 119-116 with 11 seconds to play, Jokic on the bench, and the Nuggets out of timeouts. In other words, had the Thunder just defended naturally and let the Nuggets play the next possession out, it’s possible Oklahoma City could’ve escaped with the win while Jokic had to watch Denver’s final possession from the sidelines.
Unwilling to deviate from their original plan, the Thunder still elected to foul immediately rather than risk a Nuggets 3-point attempt. Aaron Gordon’s free throws cut the lead to one, and the stoppage allowed Jokic to re-enter the contest. After a couple of missed free throws from Holmgren, Russell Westbrook rushed the ball up the court and found Gordon for the game-winning 3-pointer with 2.8 seconds on the clock.
To be fair, Jokic didn’t have a hand in the game-winning possession, but consider the result karmic justice for playing with fire.
It’s possible the Nuggets might have cashed a triple on the play in question if the Thunder had let them play it out, but I’d rather trust my league-best defense to get a stop than take my chances with the best player on the planet back on the floor. Remember, too, that Joker-less Denver would’ve had to take it the length of the floor after Gilgeous-Alexander’s dunk.
Jokic’s brilliance demands a real-time recalibration of best practices, like Barry Bonds drawing an intentional walk with the bases loaded. The Thunder refused to budge. Jokic didn’t make them pay, but they still got what they deserved. Now let’s see how the championship favorites – and the youngest team in the playoffs – punch back.
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