Betting at the Preakness Stakes: The Impact of Kentucky Derby on the Second Leg

The Preakness Stakes is a prominent horse racing event held yearly at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. It comes just two weeks after the Kentucky Derby hits Churchill Downs on May 3, 2025, bringing fans and bettors together to see what happens next. 

In this post, we’ll explore how the Derby’s results ripple into the Preakness, what bettors should watch for, and how history can help shape more thoughtful picks in one of racing’s most exciting events.

What is the Triple Crown Series?

The Triple Crown is the crown jewel of American horse racing—a rare and prestigious title awarded to a three-year-old Thoroughbred that wins all three of the sport’s most iconic races in the same season. The series is a true test of a racehorse’s versatility, endurance, and consistency, combining speed, stamina, and sheer determination. It consists of:

• • When: First Saturday in May (May 3, 2025).
  • Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky.
  • Distance: 1 1/4 miles (10 furlongs) on a dirt track.
  • What’s Different: Called “The Run for the Roses,” it’s the first leg with a considerable crowd, often up to 20 horses. The long stretch and fast start test speed and early moves. It’s a loud party with mint juleps and big hats, kicking off the Triple Crown with a bang.

• • When: Third Saturday in May (May 17, 2025), two weeks after the Derby.
  • Where: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, Maryland.
  • Distance: 1 3/16 miles (9.5 furlongs) on dirt.
  • What’s Different: Shorter than the Derby, it’s a quick follow-up that checks a horse’s bounce-back. The track’s tight turns need agility more than stamina. With a smaller field—up to 14 horses—and a local vibe, it’s got Black-Eyed Susan drinks and keeps the Triple Crown hunt rolling.

• • When: First or second Saturday in June (June 7, 2025), three weeks after the Preakness.
  • Where: Belmont Park, Elmont, New York.
  • Distance: 1 1/2 miles (12 furlongs) on a wide dirt track.
  • What’s Different: The longest race, dubbed “The Test of the Champion,” is about staying power. The big, open track lets horses stretch out, wearing down even the best. It’s quieter but intense, deciding if a horse grabs the Triple Crown or falls short.

The Triple Crown Series earns its name by crowning a horse three times over in a short, hard stretch. The different tracks, distances, and tight schedules make it a brutal test—winning one is big, but sweeping all three is what makes a champion a true ruler of the sport.

Impact of Kentucky Derby on the Preakness Stakes

The Preakness field is often built around the Kentucky Derby winner, who often enters as the favorite. But that doesn’t always guarantee victory.

Take Justify in 2018—he entered the Preakness as a firm -225 favorite after dominating the Derby and went on to win, keeping his Triple Crown hopes alive. Similarly, American Pharoah went off at 5-6 in 2015 and delivered.

But the story doesn’t always follow that script. In 2016, Exaggerator, who finished second in the Derby, took advantage of the tighter distance and reversed the result in the Preakness. In 2019, War of Will won the Preakness at 4-1 after the Derby winner, Country House, didn’t enter.

The betting markets react fast during Triple Crown season, and nowhere is that more evident than in the lead-up to the Preakness Stakes. Bettors closely analyze the Kentucky Derby outcome to assess who won and how they won—was it a dominant performance or a lucky break? A convincing Derby victory can make a horse a heavy favorite in the Preakness, often leading to a sharp drop in odds. Conversely, if the Derby champ appears vulnerable or opts to skip the Preakness, the field opens up, and attention shifts to fresh contenders with untapped potential. 

For real-time odds and a deep dive into Preakness betting options, check out FanDuel, where the action unfolds as the race nears. This back-and-forth keeps the Preakness buzzing as bettors sift through Derby clues to find their edge.

Factors to Consider When Betting on the Preakness Stakes

The Preakness Stakes presents a unique challenge for bettors. Unlike the Kentucky Derby, which allows horses several weeks or months to prepare and qualify, the Preakness arrives just two weeks later—a tight turnaround that can dramatically affect performance. While it may seem like another race, savvy bettors know Preakness requires a different lens. Here are the key factors to keep in mind before placing your bets:

Form and Recovery

The physical and mental toll of the Kentucky Derby is real. A fast-paced, crowded field or tough trip can drain even elite horses. Some bounce back quickly; others show signs of fatigue. Did the horse have a smooth trip at Churchill Downs, or was it caught wide or bumped early? Has the trainer hinted at how well the horse recovered?

These questions matter. While Derby winners often enter the Preakness as favorites, a tired or stiff runner can falter—even against less experienced rivals.

Track Conditions at Pimlico

Pimlico Race Course is a different beast than Churchill Downs. Its surface can vary greatly depending on the weather, and the configuration demands a slightly different pace strategy. Wet or fast track? Some horses thrive on muddy or sloppy surfaces, while others struggle.

Churchill Downs is a long, wide dirt oval, while Pimlico’s 1 3/16-mile track is tighter with sharper turns. A horse that needs space to stretch out might struggle, but one that’s quick and nimble could take advantage.

Fresh Horses

The Preakness field annually includes horses who skipped the Kentucky Derby entirely—often called “new shooters.” These runners come in with fresh legs, less wear and tear, and a strategic edge.

One standout example is Early Voting, which bypassed the 2022 Derby and won the Preakness with a well-timed run. His win proved that sometimes, skipping the Derby isn’t a disadvantage—it’s a tactical decision.

New shooters may also benefit from extra training time, targeted preparation for Pimlico, and a lack of public hype, which makes them undervalued on the betting board.

Kentucky Derby Horses in the Preakness Stakes and Beyond

Over the years, 36 horses have won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. But only 13 of them went on to claim the Triple Crown. The second leg is where reality sets in. The physical toll of the Derby can be shown here. Some horses thrive under the pressure. Others run well but fall short. These outcomes shape the narrative going into the Belmont Stakes. If there’s no Triple Crown on the line, the excitement dips, and so do the odds for Belmont betting. But if a horse sweeps the first two legs? The buzz—and the betting—explode.

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